Sharp Money Report: Why Vegas Respects Indiana as Underdogs

By Vegas Insider

The Line Movement

• Open: Miami -6.5
• Current: Miami -5.5
• Public Money: 72% on Miami
• Sharp Money: Some action on Indiana

Do you see the disconnect? The public is pounding Miami at home, yet the line moved towards Indiana. That is a classic "Reverse Line Movement." It means some professional money is taking the Hoosiers plus the points.

Why the Sharps Respect Indiana

It's the "Cinderella factor." Teams on historic runs often play with house money. Indiana has nothing to lose and everything to prove. Cignetti's coaching and Rourke's efficiency have exceeded every expectation this season.

The Total (Over/Under 54.5)

The line opened at 52 and has been pushed up to 54.5. Both teams can score, but Miami's defense might keep this lower than expected.

Both defenses are opportunistic but prone to giving up calculated drives. I'd lean towards the Under in a game where both teams will try to control the clock and minimize mistakes.

The Pick

Indiana is a live dog in this spot. Their historic run, combined with Rourke's efficiency and Cignetti's game planning, makes them dangerous. Miami wins, but covering at home against a motivated underdog is never easy. Prediction: Miami 31, Indiana 24.